Meketa Connectives | AI Stocks: Bubble or Super-Cycle?

December 2025

In early November, Artificial Intelligence (AI)-related equities collectively lost roughly $1 trillion in market capitalization, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq declining around 4%. 

This sharp swing revived comparisons to the late- 1990s Tech Bubble, and today’s AI narrative indeed carries several familiar characteristics. A central concern is the scale of capital expenditures (CAPEX) anticipated across AI infrastructure, ranging from semiconductor fabrication plants to custom graphics processing unit (GPU) development to data centers, power generation, digital towers and beyond. While some tech companies have largely relied on cash flows to fund AI-related CAPEX, the scale of needed investment is expected to require significant funding from credit markets as well. The media often aggregates estimated multi-year spending commitments by the likes of Microsoft, Nvidia, Meta, Alphabet, Oracle, TSMC, Apple, and Tesla to suggest totals into the hundreds of billions of dollars. Understandably, investors are concerned that the scale of investment may not deliver commensurate profit growth but instead could weigh on share prices over the long run.