August 2022 economic and market update

September 2022

After posting strong results in July, global markets resumed their sell-off in August on mounting concerns that policy rates would go much higher to contain inflation, increasing the risk of recession.

  • The hopes for a so-called Fed pivot were dashed by a brief address at the Jackson Hole Conference by the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell. In his speech he indicated that the Fed was prepared to hike rates much higher even if unemployment rates rose and economic growth cooled.
  • Emerging market equities significantly outperformed for the month as inflationary fears and hawkish rhetoric from the Federal Reserve particularly weighed on developed market equities.
  • Except for small-cap, value stocks outperformed growth stocks, reflecting expectations for higher rates and lower economic growth.
  • Interest rates rose across the US yield curve with the curve remaining inverted (ten-year yield minus the two-year yield) by 30 basis points.

Persistently high inflation and the likely increased pace of the policy response, the war in Ukraine, lingering COVID-19 issues, and lockdowns in China will all have considerable consequences for the global economy.

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