How will we know we are in a recession?

June 2023

The Fed started raising interest rates more than a year ago. The pace and level of increases has led many observers to predict that the Fed’s actions may lead the US into a recession. Given the delayed impact of rate hikes on the economy, their full impact on economic growth may not be known for some time.

In this piece we will discuss what a recession is, what signs are useful in indicating whether a recession could be approaching, what these indicators are telling us, and how this compares to history.