What we are watching in 2026: four themes shaping the economic and market regime

January 2026

As we enter 2026, Meketa’s “What We Are Watching” framework focuses on four themes that we believe will do the most to shape portfolio outcomes:

• The outlook and state of the US economy.
• The Federal Reserve’s policy path as it tries to balance low inflation with maximum employment amid a leadership transition that adds communication and credibility risk.
• A global monetary-policy divergence where major central banks are at different points in their cycles.
• The Artificial Intelligence (AI)-driven concentration in US equities and what it implies for rotation, volatility, and financing conditions.

Taken together, these themes provide the lens through which we frame our expectations and our risks for the year ahead.