Reality Check: How 2025 Compared to Our Expectations

December 2025

At the start of the year, Meketa’s “What We Are Watching in 2025” highlighted four key themes: Trump Administration Policies, Federal Reserve Policy Dynamics, China’s Economic Struggles, and concentration risks in US Equities.

As we look back, this scorecard assesses how those expectations matched reality, where our views aligned with unfolding events, where outcomes diverged, and how these dynamics ultimately shaped market performance across 2025. Below, we graded our expectations on a scale from 1 to 5, with 1 representing the least accurate and 5 representing the most accurate.