Third quarter 2019 global macroeconomic outlook

November 6, 2019

Given the slowing manufacturing sector and ongoing trade tensions, the IMF continues to reduce their growth projections.

  • The IMF now forecasts global growth to be 3.0% in 2019 and 3.4% in 2020, down 0.2% and 0.1%, respectively, from the July estimates.
  • In advanced economies, growth is projected to slow from the 2.3% 2018 level to 1.7% in both 2019 and 2020. Growth in the US is forecasted to slow to 2.4% in 2019 and to 2.1% in 2020 as trade tensions escalate with China and the manufacturing sector slows. Growth in the euro area and Japan are both projected to be lower than the US this year and next.
  • Growth projections continue to be revised down for emerging and developing economies due to the global slowdown and trade tensions. Growth is forecasted to be 3.9% in 2019 and 4.6% in 2020; both estimates were revised down from July. China‚Äôs growth is expected to slow even further given the escalation in trade tensions with the US and overall slower growth globally. Policy support will likely offset only part of the impact of the trade dispute.
  • Overall, inflation is projected to decline in 2019 and pickup in 2020, but remain close to long-term averages.