October 2020 near-term market assessment

November 4, 2020

This document provides summary observations made by a group of Meketa investment professionals on a monthly basis that are based on a variety of market and economic factors. It is meant to be a high level overview of our aggregated views on current market trends. These views are used in a variety of ways to inform near-term portfolio construction.

Market direction is increasingly difficult to predict given the looming US elections and their impacts. While additional fiscal stimulus does not appear to be forthcoming in the US in the short-term, it is likely that a package will ultimately be approved after the election with its content highly dependent on the election outcome. Monetary policy remains accommodative, providing support to risk assets; however, monetary policy is not a panacea. Valuations are stretched in the US equity market and momentum has waned after a strong recovery. Long-term interest rates have begun to increase, putting the rally in growth stocks at risk. International developed markets offer better relative valuations when compared to the US, but core markets in Europe now face a resurgence of the virus and fading support for additional fiscal stimulus. Emerging markets, led by China, have been more resilient, and China continues to remain on a course of cautious stimulus measures. Globally, the path of COVID-19 and its treatment remain uncertain with particular concerns over a continued spike in cases as we enter the winter months in certain areas. Our positioning across asset classes and geographies, which is largely neutral, is informed by a “wait and see” approach until the election outcome and there is more clarity related to the economic impacts of COVID-19.