January 2021 near-term market assessment

January 22, 2021

This document provides summary observations made by a group of Meketa investment professionals on a monthly basis that are based on a variety of market and economic factors. It is meant to be a high level overview of our aggregated views on current market trends. These views are used in a variety of ways to inform near-term portfolio construction.

Just a few days into 2021, the world watched shocking scenes of insurrection at our nation’s capital. Nevertheless, politicians persevered, confirming president-elect Joe Biden. The first full week of the new year also brought an election surprise in Georgia, with two Democratic senate candidates winning and confirming a narrow control of Congress by the Democrats. President-elect Biden has indicated that he will pursue further fiscal stimulus as soon as he takes office. While the ultimate size of any possible stimulus package is uncertain, it suggests that deficit spending will continue. With a shift in the political center of gravity in the US confirmed, and the likelihood of fiscal spending increasing, we believe modest adjustments to positioning are merited. We are cautiously constructive on global equities; with policy support, lower COVID-19 risks as vaccines are deployed, and price momentum all constructive. Meanwhile, we are neutral across other high level categories. We continue to observe low yields, narrow spreads, and the potential for continued yield curve steepening in the US, all diminishing our outlook for some fixed income asset classes.