Fourth quarter 2019 global macroeconomic outlook

February 5, 2020

Slowing in some emerging economies, particularly India, led the IMF to continue to reduce growth projections.

  • The IMF now forecasts global growth of 2.9% in 2019 and 3.3% in 2020 both 0.1% lower than the last estimate.
  • In advanced economies, growth is projected to slow from the 1.7% estimate for 2019 to 1.6% in 2020.  Growth in the US is forecasted to slow from an estimated 2.3% in 2019 to 2.0% in 2020 as the impact of fiscal support wanes and further monetary support is not expected.  Growth in the euro area and Japan are both projected to be much lower than the US this year.
  • Growth projections continue to be revised down for emerging and developing economies due to China’s slowing economy and the impact of trade tensions.  Growth is forecasted to increase from the 3.7% estimate for 2019 to 4.4% in 2020, 0.2% lower than the last estimate.  China’s growth is expected to continue to slow given structural issues with the recent trade deal providing some relief in the near-term.
  • Overall, inflation is projected to increase in 2020 but remain close to long-term averages.